Published 03 October 2026 | Nature & Environment

TL;DR: A new scientific study uses advanced simulations of seismic faults near Almeria, generating thousands of virtual earthquakes over tens of thousands of years to better assess regional seismic hazard.

Earthquake Simulations Reveal Almeria Seismic Hazards

Long-term earthquake modelling

Scientists have applied a detailed earthquake simulator to study seismic hazards in southeastern Spain, focusing on fault lines around Almeria. By using a computer model that reproduces the gradual buildup and sudden release of stress along faults, researchers were able to virtually recreate thousands of earthquakes spanning over 50,000 years. This long-term approach moves beyond the limited scope of historical records, providing insights into rare but potentially large seismic events that might only recur over millennia.

Faults included in the model

The simulation focuses on the tectonically active Eastern Betics Shear Zone, incorporating six major fault systems: Alhama de Murcia, Carrascoy, Los Tollos, Bajo Segura, Palomares, and Carboneras. Among these, the Carboneras fault near Almeria is particularly significant for understanding local seismic risk. Parameters such as each fault’s shape, slip rate, and historic seismic behaviour were input into the model to generate realistic scenarios for how these faults might rupture over long time periods.

Virtual earthquake catalogues

Using the RSQSim model, the researchers created synthetic catalogs of seismic activity covering 100,000 years. To ensure stable conditions for analysis, the first 10,000 years were discarded, leaving a robust dataset of 50,000 years of simulated earthquake sequences. These virtual events include magnitudes up to about 7.4 on the moment magnitude scale, which is higher than any historically recorded earthquake in the region. The purpose is to capture low-frequency, high-impact earthquakes that might not appear in the limited historical record.

Implications for Almeria’s seismic hazard

Though some simulated earthquakes reach magnitudes larger than historically observed, the study does not predict when or if these will happen. Rather, it provides a framework for understanding the range of possible seismic events the region could experience over extensive time scales. Almeria lies roughly 20 kilometres from the faults included in the model, making it a key reference point for measuring how well the simulations align with known seismic hazards. This type of research helps improve risk assessments and supports better preparation for future earthquakes.

Advancing regional seismic knowledge

This scientific effort marks an important step in shifting from short-term earthquake observations to a deeper understanding of seismic risk shaped by long-term fault dynamics. By simulating thousands of possible earthquakes, researchers gain insights beyond the historical record’s constraints. While it does not forecast specific events, the study enhances knowledge of how seismic hazards develop in southeastern Spain and highlights the importance of continued monitoring and assessment in Almeria and surrounding areas.

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